A Prediction Market User Made $436,000 on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro.
An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Wagers
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before former President Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.
A particular user, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Probability Spikes Before News Break
Platform data shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the prior Friday.
However the odds had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made.
"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on confidential knowledge," commented Dennis Kelleher.
Several of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers.
Political Attention Intensifies
Elected officials are growing concerned.
A bill introduced on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.
Market Background
Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs.
Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency.
Trading on insider information is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting arena.
A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."
